Prime Day 2025 Planning: Consumer Sentiment Data Reveals a Winning Strategy
Amazon just announced Prime Day 2025 for July 8-11, but here's the challenge every brand needs to wrestle with:
Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in over three years.
While Prime Day represents massive opportunity, the landscape has fundamentally shifted.
Consumer confidence has declined, discretionary spending is under pressure, and we're facing "tentpole overload"—major shopping events have expanded from 7 total days historically to potentially 20 days now, diluting urgency and fragmenting consumer attention across multiple sales periods.
The brands that win Prime Day 2025 won't be those throwing more budget at the same old strategies. They'll be the ones who understand what the data reveals about consumer behavior and adjust their approach accordingly.
The Consumer Sentiment Reality Check
The numbers paint a clear picture of where consumers stand heading into summer 2025.
Consumer confidence sits at its lowest point in more than three years, according to Numerator's June 2025 data (Consumer Sentiment Index). Only 38% of consumers report feeling comfortable spending money on discretionary purchases right now—down from previous periods. Meanwhile, 72% are worried about higher prices on everyday goods due to tariff concerns, up from 64% in February (GO internal market research, April 2025).
There are some generational shifts happening as well. When we look back at 2024’s data, millennials, traditionally Prime Day's strongest demographic, spent 1.3% less year-over-year during Prime Day 2024. They were the only generation to decline, and 4.4% fewer millennials participated compared to 2023 (Facteus data via eMarketer, July 2024).
The economic pressures are real. According to recent Intuit Credit Karma research, 83% of consumers say that if their financial situation worsens in the coming months, they'll strongly consider cutting back on non-essential purchases. This isn't just sentiment—it's spending behavior that directly impacts your Prime Day performance.
Two Strategic Opportunities Hidden in the Data
While the headlines focus on consumer pessimism, the data reveals specific opportunities for strategic brands willing to adapt their approach.
Opportunity #1: Average Order Value Insights Drive Value Strategy
Here's what last year's Prime Day revealed: the average order was $57.97, with two-thirds of items selling for under $20 (Numerator via eMarketer, July 2024). This isn't about racing to the bottom on price—it's about understanding how consumers are shopping.
Smart brands can focus on strategic value communication rather than aggressive discounting. This means emphasizing clear savings on everyday essentials, creating thoughtful product bundles that increase basket size while delivering genuine value, and positioning products within that $20-$60 sweet spot where consumers still feel comfortable spending.
The opportunity lies in messaging that addresses value concerns head-on while protecting your profitability margins.
Opportunity #2: Target the High-Income Segment Still Driving Growth
While overall consumer spending shows caution, high-income consumers—those making $100K+ annually—continue propelling spending increases through Q1 2025 (Morning Consult data). Even more telling: 63% of high-income millennials are planning to splurge on select categories, particularly travel and jewelry (McKinsey Q1 2025 research).
This represents a clear strategic focus area. Premium brands and higher-value offerings have a distinct advantage if they can effectively reach and message to this segment during Prime Day. These consumers have maintained spending power and willingness to invest in quality products that deliver genuine value.
Your Prime Day Action Plan
The consumer sentiment data points to three immediate action areas:
Pre-Event: Audit your foundation elements—inventory levels, product detail page content, and operational processes. Warm your target audiences with strategic messaging that addresses value concerns directly rather than generic promotional content.
During Event: Monitor performance closely and stay reactive to real-time data. Focus messaging on clear value communication and target those high-income segments maintaining spending power.
Post-Event: Capture and nurture the new-to-brand customers you acquire. With consumer sentiment remaining cautious, the follow-up strategy becomes even more critical for converting one-time Prime Day shoppers into loyal, repeat customers.
The brands that succeed in this environment will be those that understand consumer sentiment isn't just about optimism or pessimism—it's about strategic adaptation based on what the data actually reveals about spending behavior.
This approach aligns perfectly with GO's proven tentpole methodology, refined over 17 years of managing major shopping events.
GO's Tentpole Strategy Framework Applied
At GO, we've been managing tentpole events since 2008, and here's what 17 years of data teaches us: simply advertising more won't enable long-term growth on its own.
Yes, Prime Day is a massive marketing opportunity. But if you don't have a sound foundation across operations, retail, and creative, you're wasting ad dollars. Amazon's own research shows that tentpole events with proper foundation work can reach up to 57% more new-to-brand customers than discounts alone, and those new customers spend 1.9x more during their first year (Amazon Advertising).
That's why we use a 5-step tentpole framework:
Selection: Choose the right events for your brand and customer base—not every tentpole delivers equal results for every product.
Foundation: Shore up operations, retail presence, and creative assets before you spend a dollar on advertising. Gaps in inventory management, product detail pages, or customer data minimize returns and create customer frustration.
Drip: Prime audiences with pre-tentpole campaigns that warm them to your products. This is especially powerful for new product launches or reaching those high-value customer segments.
Capitalize: Tentpole events aren't "set-it-and-forget-it" days. You need to monitor performance and react to opportunities throughout the event, especially when consumer sentiment is shifting.
Follow-up: Build post-event strategies that nurture new customers and solidify relationships for long-term value, not just short-term sales spikes.
Ready to Navigate Prime Day 2025?
The consumer sentiment landscape is complex, but the opportunities are clear for brands that adapt strategically. Let's discuss how our team can help you navigate these challenges and maximize momentum for the rest of the year. Contact our team below and let’s get GO-ing.